Snow Forecast and Weather Predictions for Skiing Winter 2025 - 2026

Did anyone else read the latest scientific study warning that Europe and North America might be about to experience a mini ice age and think, woohoo, all year skiing?

Yep, if the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, the system of rotating currents south of Greenland, collapses as indicated it might by the latest scientific study, then we can expect a big freeze in the Northern Hemisphere that will mean long and very chilly ski seasons in the future.    

SNOWGLOBAL WARMING

But it's not going to be the day after tomorrow. Hopefully, such a dramatic cooling climate change will never happen but, of course, we do have the very real threat of increasing global warming to worry about.

And, yes, we've already seen snowfalls above 2000m in many ski resorts but before we get too excited remember that early snow is never a sign of a great winter ski season. Sometimes quite the opposite.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have issued this statement for winter 2025 - 2026: 'despite the temporary cooling influence of La Niña, temperatures are still expected to be above average for much of the world'.

Above average temperatures are not a good look for the snowglobe - and ski resorts. We've seen the effect at lower altitudes of warming temperatures, where snow has been replaced by rain during the past two winters.

But let's remember that the effects of global warming can create major unsettled and storm conditions, as manifested in the floods across Europe during the summer and hurricanes in the Atlantic in early autumn, including the devasting 185mph wind force of Hurricane Melissa that hit Jamaica.

With the potential of storms blowing in for this winter disrupting the predicted weather charts, keep the Gore-tex to hand and buckle up for what could be gondola-tossing storms. And, maybe, stock up on the thermals for a future mini ice age.

THE LA NINA EFFECT

If you've kept even half an eye on the weather forecasts going into winter 2025 - 2026, you'll know that we have a La Nina weather system building through the autumn and into December, with probabilities, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, of 54 percent for the winter months of December through to February, gradually decreasing into the spring of 2026, with ENSO-neutral conditions becoming more dominant.

La Nina typically shifts storm tracks northward across the Pacific and North America and can alter precipitation patterns in Europe and Asia, but the strength of the signal matters. A weak La Niña raises the probability of a Pacific-north pattern rather than guaranteeing it.

There is a high chance of mid-winter weather surprises from a weakened polar vortex or sudden stratospheric warming, which would temporarily increase cold-air intrusions into mid-latitudes and raise snowfall potential in otherwise marginal areas. This adds a significant weather noise component to the seasonal signal

Because of these interacting influences, regional forecasts matter more than a single hemispheric statement. In other words, when you're in the mountains, you can have a foot of snow in one resort, but nothing in the next valley.

SNOWFALL FOR NORTH AMERICA

Head northwest for what is looking like above-normal snowfall for many high-elevation resorts. Why? A weak La Niña often favours a more northerly Pacific storm track, bringing wetter conditions to the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies where colder temperatures will result in plenty of white flakes on the weather charts.

A displaced jet stream will be creating the colder temperatures bringing polar-coaster winter storms from the polar regions down into the northern and northwestern United States. Fingers crossed for good early season snow in mountain corridors fed directly by Pacific storms, with potentially extended mid-season refreshers. Resorts including parts of British Columbia, Washington, Idaho, Montana are predicted to hit the snow jackpot.

There's an enhanced chance of snow across the northern U.S. and parts of the northeast when the jet stream allows cold air to plunge southeast. Resorts downwind of the Great Lakes and high elevation New England venues have a decent chance of above normal seasonal totals, though warm spells can still reduce cover at lower elevations.

Another area of above-normal snowfall is across central and western Canada, according to severeweather.com. This is important because a larger snow coverage over western Canada typically provides a potentially colder airmass to the United States, as the polar air mass warms up more slowly when passing over a snow-covered area.

It's not such good news for southern California and the U.S. southwest where less snowfall is, historically, the result of a La Nina weather system. Warmer and drier winter weather is predicted to prevail over the southern states. However, strong individual storms can still produce blockbuster dumps.

EUROPE: THE ALPS

A scan of the historical annual figures of high snowfall in Europe, reveals that very few years of good snow coincide with strong or weak El Nino or La Nina activity.

During the seven best years in the northern Alps with over 150 days of more than one metre of snow, 1963 had a mild El Nino, 1975 a strong La Nina, 1977 a weak El Nino and in 1982 there was a very strong El Nino. For the three best snow years in the southern Alps with more than 150 days of over 50cms, only 1977 was affected by a weak El Nino.

The 2017-2018 winter season, however, had a weak La Nina like we have now, bringing the Feast from the East and bumper spring snow storms hitting the Alps in late spring (see main image). Same again, this winter? Yes, please.

But those past figures highlight the fact that epic snow in the Alps, whether north or south, does not have any regular identifiable correlation to La Nina or El Nino activity - whether weak, moderate or strong - except on an extremely random basis.

Meanwhile, for winter 2025 - 2026, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) predicts below average November to January snowfall across broad swathes of central Europe and parts of the Alps. Over Europe, the main snowfall potential is across higher elevations and towards the north, where temperatures are lower.

No major change is forecast for January across the continent. As the forecast shows, snowfall potential is only in the northern parts. Overall, this model shows a pretty mild winter over Europe

However, if a stratospheric warming or blocking patterns develop mid-winter, the Alps and central Europe could still see cold, snowy interludes late in the season. The January forecast from severeweather.com shows improved snowfall potential over much of the continent. This looks like a high-pressure anomaly over the north, which brings colder air to the continent.

JAPAN

Snowfall forecasts are more mixed here than for North America with the influence of local sea temperature anomalies and the Pacific jet position. Resorts on Honshu’s west coast typically remain contenders for big snow in La Niña influenced winters when the jet supports sustained northwest airflow.

SCANDINAVIA

Most forecasts show a lean towards cold and snowy conditions across high latitudes, good news for Norway, Sweden and Finnish ski resorts. with pockets of above normal snowfall in the far north.