The Snow Forecast For Winter Ski Season 2024 - 2025

Winter IS here, with snow reported from ski resorts throughout the Northern Hemisphere and many early November openings. But how will the season turn out in terms of snow?

The weather forecasters have been in overdrive trying to work out the meteorological future for winter 2024 - 2025. But with such wild weather swings, these days, bringing changes day to day, even Paul the Octopus (who accurately predicted seven World Cup results in 2010) would find it challenging, if he was still alive, to make definitive snow predictions.

There's little doubt that this year's extreme weather including deluges, heatwaves and unseasonal cool temperatures around the world, is all due to climate change with oscillations in temperatures and weather patterns. 

According to forecasters El Nino is predicted to pass the weather baton to La Niña. But, so far La Niña is being a little shy and the expected shift to cool La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean has been delayed. Forecasters now project only a weak event emerging, likely to limit the cooling influence of the climate pattern on global average temperatures. 

Climate scientist Michelle L'Heureux told USA TODAY that La Niña is delayed, which indicates that it will be a shorter and weaker weather system affecting the snowfall in ski resorts.

So, as the ski season kicks off, let's see what the weather experts have been saying starting with USA and Canada. Scroll down for Japan, Europe and Scandinavia:

NOAA SNOW REPORT

In September, NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, was predicting a 71 percent chance of a La Niña weather pattern, lasting through this winter, tapering off in the spring.

As NOAA explains, La Niña is predicted to create a high-pressure system over the North Pacific leading to the development of a low-pressure region over Alaska and western Canada, which shifts the jet stream downwards in between the two pressure systems.

In the United States, La Niña usually means higher temperatures and less precipitation in the southern regions, while the north and north-west can expect lower temperatures and high amounts of precipitation than normal. Ditto for west Canada. 

So, yeehaw, for skiers who are already enjoying a good snowfall in the above regions to kick off the season. North America’s largest ski resort, Whistler Blackcomb, is one of many that opened early with more than 90 inches of snow (228 cm) since 1st. November.

SEVERE WEATHER SNOW PREDICTIONS

As with NOAA's forecast, the latest data analysed by Severe Weather confirms the potential for more snowfall over the north of the United States and southern Canada. The displaced jet stream will bring colder temperatures and winter storms from the polar regions down into the northern and north-west United States with warmer and drier winter weather prevailing over the southern states.

In addition to the north-west United States and the mid-west, there is increased snowfall potential over the north-east United States and eastern Canada, typical of a weak La Niña, but every year has its variations, according to Severe Weather.

FARMERS' ALMANAC

More confirmation from the traditional forecaster, the Farmers Almanac, to expect major snow in the USA, this winter, with the season’s coolest temperatures stretching from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region, while areas east of the Rockies into the Appalachians will, also, experience many periods of cold conditions.

The coldest spell, according to the oracle Almanac, will be during the final week of January into the beginning of February, when frigid Arctic air brings a sharp plunge in temperatures almost nationwide, but especially across the Northern Plains. As this very cold air blows across the Great Lakes, heavy snow showers and snow squalls will bring intense bursts of snow to the lee (east) of the Lakes.'

The Farmers' Almanac is red flagging the final week of January over most of the eastern half of the USA because of a very active storm track expected to deliver frequent bouts of heavy precipitation, as well as strong and gusty winds. To be more specific, make your OOO plans and get your powder skis ready for the 20th to 27th January when there could be 'copious' amounts of snow, rain, sleet, and ice.

Skiing followers of the Farmers' Almanac should, also, circle the beginning of February on their calendars for a possible snowstorm with up to 6 inches in Texas, and 12 inches in the Bitterroot Mountain range of Idaho.

SNOW FORECAST FOR JAPAN

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has declared a 62 percent chance of a La Niña cycle creating a flurry of excitement among skiers and snowboarders at the prospect of a classic Japow winter.

Traditionally La Nina can mean more falling pow as the sea surface in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drops in temperature, affecting the atmospheric circulation pattern and piling on the pressure over Siberia. This kicks the cold air over Japan, forming clouds of water vapour on the warmer sea surface that rise over the mountains and volcanoes of Japan to drop those superlight snowflakes.

However, Japan has just had a sweltering summer equalling last year's high temperatures, which were the hottest on record. For the first time since records began 130 years ago, Mount Fuji has been bare of snow for the entire month of October, a phenomenon attributed to the warmer temperatures. Currently more rain is expected with snow predicted for the second week of November.

SO WHAT ABOUT SNOW IN EUROPE?

Look away now if you're hoping for a bumper snow season in Europe.

The signs are for less snowfall over Europe, although any accurate snow forecast from a La Nina weather system is unreliable as the continent is too far from the main meteorological action. La Niña does change the weather globally, and predictably over the United States and Canada, but Europe has other weather-influencing factors at work. 

This does not mean that La Nina will have zero impact on European snow conditions, because running the risk of raining on many people's parade/ski resort, we have to confirm that the outlook isn't encouraging for fat skis, this winter. The predictions from all the pro long range forecasters paint a less whiter than white snow picture thanks to La Nina's influence, albeit from afar.

Of course, we could ask Marco the Marmot for a forecast for the Alps but he is too grumpy from an early awakening, last spring, with unseasonably warmer weather. He's, also, busy bailing the water out of his burrow from all the autumn rain.

AND ACCORDING TO OUR SKI BLOG

So let's check back to when La Nina last affected our winters. It was back in 2020 - 2021 when there was a 75 percent potential for La Nina, similar to this winter's 71 percent.

OK, you may not remember the snow depths of 2021, as this was the winter when all the lifts were closed to prevent the spread of Covid, as well as the borders to stop most skiers and snowboarders travelling to the mountains.

For the record, our Style Altitude Ski Blog, on April, 2021 summed up the Hautes Alpes snowfall for the season in Serre Chevalier, where Tech Editor, Gavin, spent the winter ski touring and chasing what fresh snow there was:

'For sure any day ski touring in the mountains can count as a good day but how many have been epic powder days? Gav is counting on one hand. The fact is that there's been a positive drought in the Alps, this winter, with a distinct lack of fresh snow. So powder hounds stop crying into your pillows (for sleep) about missing pillows (for hucking) - and breathe.

You're not missing sunny days cruising the pistes, dropping in for a coffee on the restaurant terraces as, of course, the lifts aren't open. But neither are you missing those blue sky spring ski tours usually enjoyed from now through to May because that's mostly all folks for an abnormally below par 2020-2021 ski season here in the Southern Alps - and that's without factoring in the Covid crisis.'

That La Nina weather pattern lasted until March 2023, resulting in another less-than-heroic winter in the Alps, followed by an El Nino weather system for winter 2023 - 2024.

Fortunately, the influence of La Nina and El Nino is mostly defined by its randomness in Europe, and so it's not a given that we'll see a repeat of the fresh snow drought of four years ago.

THE SEVEN YEAR SWITCH

We know a Mountain Guide who swears that really good winters for snow in the Alps only happen every seven years.

Below is one of our favourite backcountry images when we were wading almost waist high in fresh snow in the Hautes Alpes. So let's hope he's right as that was taken seven ski seasons ago, in March 2018. On our Ski Blog we recorded, '40 days of powder and still counting'.

WHAT ABOUT SNOW IN SCANDINAVIA?

For Scandinavia it's good news. With the indications for below average snowfall over most of Europe, this winter, going to Scandinavia could be a wise move with more snowfall than normal forecast, due to the influence of the low pressure system and the jet stream over northern Europe.